Data Scientist Predicts Kamala Harris Will Defeat Trump in 2024 Election Landslide
Source: Bloomberg
Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining momentum in the 2024 presidential race, pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump following a successful September 10 debate. According to renowned data scientist Thomas Miller from Northwestern University, Trump’s hopes of reclaiming the White House will likely be dashed in November.
Miller, who accurately predicted the 2020 election results, told Fortune Magazine that Harris is poised for a decisive victory. “It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” he said. Miller, an expert in political forecasting, emphasized that “political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd.”
He argued that polls, while useful, are often lagging indicators of public sentiment. “Polls are a snapshot of the recent past,” Miller explained, adding that they typically sample small groups of 500 to 1,500 people. By the time poll results are posted, public opinion may have already shifted.
“Most polls are around four or five days behind,” he added, creating noise and unpredictability. Miller believes that a more accurate question to ask voters is, “Which candidate do you expect to win?” rather than simply, “Who will you vote for?” He pointed to PredictIt, a popular political betting site, as a more reliable source for forecasting election outcomes.
According to the Daily Mail, Unlike traditional polls, which often suffer from small and fluctuating sample sizes, PredictIt involves a stable group of investors. “You have tens of thousands of people betting on the site at all times of the day,” Miller noted, with an average of 37,000 shares traded daily.
Miller likened PredictIt to a liquid market for small-cap stocks or high-yield bonds, where investors quickly incorporate new information. “Financial markets are forward-looking and incorporate information instantaneously, and PredictIt provides the same benefits,” he explained.
According to Miller’s September projections, Harris would secure 55% of the popular vote, giving her a comfortable lead in the Electoral College. This prediction aligns with recent polling from Quinnipiac University, which shows Harris leading in key swing states. The poll indicates Harris has a six-point lead in Pennsylvania (51% to 45%), a crucial battleground state.
She also holds narrow leads in Wisconsin (48% to 47%) and Michigan, where she leads by five points. As the election approaches, Miller’s analysis suggests Harris is on track to make history as the first woman president of the United States, potentially winning in a landslide.
