Ohio’s ‘Cookie Poll’ Predicts Trump Leading Over Harris in Sweet Election Tradition

For nearly 40 years, Cincinnati’s Busken Bakery has run a quirky and delicious tradition known as the ‘cookie poll,’ where customers vote for their preferred presidential candidate by purchasing cookies decorated with the caricatures of the contenders. Though far from scientific, this playful poll has accurately predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984, missing only once in 2020.

This year, the cookie competition is heating up, with Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by a wide margin. According to the latest tally from Busken Bakery, Trump-themed cookies are outselling Harris-themed cookies by a notable difference. As of the most recent count, Trump has secured about 54% of the cookie vote, with 2,953 cookies sold, while Harris trails with 39% or 2,134 cookies.

Additionally, a neutral option—a smiley face cookie—has garnered 7% of sales, representing undecided voters or those simply looking for a tasty treat. With Election Day still weeks away, there’s plenty of time for more ‘votes’ to be cast, as reported by the New York Post. Busken Bakery’s cookie poll has become a local phenomenon, blending politics and pastry in a lighthearted way.

The poll allows customers to ‘stuff the ballot box’ by purchasing as many cookies as they like, with each purchase counting as a vote. Dan Busken, the bakery’s CEO, explained the appeal of the tradition: “We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box. Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east, and west portions of Cincinnati.

So they’re pretty diverse. It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and a city like Cincinnati, there’s been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.” Ohio itself has long been seen as a bellwether state, accurately picking the winner of every presidential election from 1964 until 2020. That year, Trump won Ohio but lost the national race, marking both the bakery’s and the state’s first incorrect prediction in decades.

Reflecting on the tradition, Busken said, “We hire a local artist, Jim White, who draws caricatures of each candidate, and then we transfer that image to a cookie. It’s meant to be fun,” as shared by Newsweek. However, this year’s poll has been met with more intense reactions from customers than in previous elections. “Some people this year—especially more than any prior elections—have been more vocal and not so friendly about things.

But we’re moving forward. We’ve done it for 40 years. We think it’s fun,” Busken remarked. Despite the increased tension, the bakery has seen an uptick in cookie sales compared to previous elections, with voter turnout on the rise.

Interestingly, this year’s cookie poll aligns with other polling data from Ohio. According to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Harris by 8 to 12 points in the state, giving him an 87% chance of winning Ohio. Nationally, however, the race remains tight, with Harris holding a slight lead in the Electoral College. As the cookie poll continues, the fun and flavor of this offbeat tradition will no doubt add a sweet twist to Ohio’s political landscape—whether or not the cookies can predict the outcome once again.