“If Trump is Polling This Low with Rasmussen, It Must Be Bad”: Trump Faces New Polling Challenges
ABC; BRANDON BELL/GETTY IMAGES
Donald Trump has long enjoyed sharing favorable political polls on his social media accounts, but the latest numbers from Rasmussen Reports might not make it to his Truth Social feed. The new poll shows Trump dropping below 50 percent in a matchup with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Rasmussen Reports, which AllSides media bias rating shows as “lean right,” indicated a significant dip for Trump. “Rasmussen has Trump under 50 and +5? It’s over for him,” predicted Georgia professor Anthony Michael Kreis.
“Trump only +1 in a 3-way in a Rasmussen poll? Hell has frozen over,” agreed Florida professor Michael McDonald. Kevin, a self-described “data nerd,” referenced a 2020 report showing Biden up by one point with a margin of error. “Trump is cooked,” he remarked.
The sentiment was echoed by Jeb, an observer from the U.K., who said, “If Trump is polling this low with Rasmussen, it must be bad.” Similarly, Nick Stelzner posted on X, “You know things are bad when Rasmussen has Kamala gaining.”
While some observers noticed that the numbers for Trump vs. Harris remain relatively similar, where Trump loses ground is with some of his voters shifting to Robert Kennedy Jr. Harris also appears to be picking up some of RFK’s votes. The third-party candidate, however, is not on the ballot in all 50 states, according to an X user.
Not all reactions were accepting of the poll’s findings. A self-identifying “America First” supporter disputed the poll, recalling the 2016 election: “All the polls had Killary up by 8-12%. I truly think there’s a 10% female adjustment with the media. It’s probably even bigger for a female POC,” meaning person of color.
This skepticism is not without precedent. In 2016, some pollsters found that supporters of Donald Trump stopped participating in polls, as Pew Research noted in 2021. Additionally, Trump was able to shift the electorate by attracting a larger number of non-college white voters, CBS News reported in 2020.
As the 2024 election approaches, these polling numbers could indicate a challenging road ahead for Trump. The drop in support from a traditionally favorable pollster like Rasmussen suggests that his campaign may need to address these shifting dynamics to regain momentum. The political landscape remains volatile, and with new contenders like Robert Kennedy Jr. drawing support, the race is far from predictable.
