Elon Poll Shows Tight Race Between Harris and Trump Among North Carolina Voters
Photograph: Robert Willett/AP
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are running nearly neck and neck in terms of favorability among North Carolina’s registered voters, according to an Elon Poll released Tuesday.
The poll indicates that 44% of voters have a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Harris, while 46% hold similar views of Trump. Both Harris and Trump are viewed unfavorably by about half of the voters surveyed.
In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein holds a more favorable position compared to Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Stein is viewed favorably by 44% of voters, while Robinson lags behind with a 30% favorability rating. Conversely, 50% of voters view Robinson unfavorably, compared to 29% for Stein.
Interestingly, more Republicans than Democrats indicated they would split their votes between the presidential and gubernatorial races. Sixteen percent of Republicans said they would choose candidates from different parties, while only 6% of Democrats said they would do the same. This poll, the first Elon Poll of the 2024 election year, was conducted from August 2-9, after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race but before the Democratic National Convention.
North Carolina’s status as a swing state has been debated, given that Republican presidential candidates have won the state in the last three elections. However, Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, emphasized that North Carolina’s electoral votes are still very much in play for either party. “Winning those votes will involve navigating a divided, complex, and engaged electorate,” Husser said in a news release.
The poll also highlighted significant racial and gender divides in both the presidential and gubernatorial races. Trump enjoys stronger support among male voters, with 50% holding a favorable view of him compared to 39% for Harris. Among women, Harris leads slightly with 47% favorability, while Trump stands at 43%.
Racial divides are also stark, with 72% of Black voters viewing Harris favorably, compared to only 17% for Trump. Among white voters, 54% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 35% feel the same about Harris. In the gubernatorial race, Stein outpaces Robinson among women and Black voters. Stein is viewed favorably by 46% of women and 65% of Black voters, while Robinson garners only 23% favorability among women and 14% among Black voters.
The state’s economy emerged as the top issue for voters in the governor’s race, with 90% of respondents saying it was extremely or very important to their decision. The poll, sponsored by Elon University and conducted by the firm YouGov, had a sample size of 800 and a margin of error of 3.86%.
