‘We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat’: GOP Strategist Sees Strong Odds for Kamala Harris Against Trump
Christophe Ena/AP
A prominent Republican strategist believes that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has a strong chance of defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming election—if a critical polling trend holds steady. Mike Madrid, who formerly served as California’s GOP political director and co-founded the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project, expressed optimism about Harris’ prospects on the social media platform X.
On Monday night, Madrid highlighted Harris’ growing support among Latino voters and the increasing GOP defection rate as key indicators of her potential success. “If Kamala Harris continues to show polling numbers with Trump under 34% with Latino voters and an increase in the GOP defection rate to 9%+, we’re gonna need a bigger boat,” Madrid remarked, referencing the famous line from the movie Jaws to underscore his confidence in Harris’ chances.
However, Madrid also offered a word of caution in a follow-up post, noting that many of the polls showing Trump at such low levels are conducted by Democratic-leaning pollsters, “who aren’t very credible.” Despite this, he predicted that post-convention momentum could see further shifts in Harris’ favor, particularly among college-educated Republicans and U.S.-born Latino men.
When asked about the implications of his Jaws reference for Harris, Madrid simply responded, “Very good.” Madrid’s optimism appears to be supported by recent polling data. A survey obtained by The Hill on Friday revealed that Harris is leading Trump by a significant margin among Hispanic voters in North Carolina. The TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights/Media Predict poll showed Harris with 56 percent support from likely Hispanic voters in the state, while Trump was trailing at 34 percent.
These numbers suggest that Harris is making significant inroads with key voter demographics, which could be crucial in a tightly contested election. If the trends identified by Madrid continue, Harris may have a solid foundation to challenge Trump, particularly in states with large Latino populations.
The focus on Latino voters and GOP defections reflects broader strategic calculations that could shape the outcome of the election. As the race progresses, these polling metrics will be closely watched to gauge Harris’ viability against Trump, potentially turning Madrid’s prediction into reality.
