Mark Robinson More Popular Than J.D. Vance Among Key Voters, Despite Controversial Past
(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/ via JTA)
A new analysis from The Bulwark has revealed a surprising contrast in favorability between North Carolina’s controversial Lt. Governor Mark Robinson and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a staunch ally of former President Donald Trump. According to editor Johnathan V. Last, Robinson, despite his scandalous past, is more favored among certain voter groups than Vance, who struggles to win support even from Trump’s own base.
Robinson, currently running for governor of North Carolina, has faced numerous controversies, including accusations of boasting about an affair with his wife’s sister on a porn site. Yet, according to a poll from Elon University, Robinson still enjoys a 27% favorability rating among women in North Carolina, a figure that outpaces Vance’s popularity among younger voters.
By comparison, a recent Harvard Youth Poll revealed that Vance is viewed favorably by only 18% of voters between the ages of 18 and 30. This stark difference prompted Last to comment on the irony of Robinson’s comparative success: “The guy who says the Holocaust was overblown, who wants to own slaves, and who bragged about banging his wife’s sister . . . That guy was able to get to 27 percent favorable with women in North Carolina. But JD Vance is stuck at 18 percent among people who are basically his same age.”
The Disconnect Between Trump Supporters and Vance
The Harvard poll also placed Donald Trump’s favorability rating at 31%, showing that nearly a third of young voters still support the former president. However, Vance’s unfavorability rating stood at 46%, suggesting a significant portion of Trump’s base does not share the same enthusiasm for his Ohio ally.
“Almost half the people who like Donald Trump don’t like JD Vance,” Last observed, underlining a curious disconnect between Trump’s widespread influence and Vance’s struggle to win over the same demographic.
Why Vance Struggles: “X-Pac Heat”
To explain Vance’s unpopularity, Last drew a colorful comparison to professional wrestling, specifically referencing a phenomenon known as “X-Pac heat,” named after wrestler Sean “X-Pac” Waltman. Unlike traditional “heat,” where the audience boos because they hate the wrestler’s villainous character, “X-Pac heat” occurs when the audience dislikes the performer themselves, regardless of the role they’re playing.
“This is when the audience boos and insults the wrestler not just because they are a heel and they hate the gimmick,” explained The Sportster. “They boo because they hate the wrestler unrelated to the character or gimmick they are portraying.” In wrestling circles, this disdain is also known as “Go Away Heat.”
According to Last, this is the kind of sentiment Vance evokes in American voters: “This Harvard poll did not test favorability ratings for the Taliban, or Vladimir Putin, or herpes. If they had, I’m sure all three would have been less popular than JD Vance. But not by much.”
What This Means for Vance and the GOP
The sharp divide between Robinson’s ability to maintain a base of support despite numerous scandals and Vance’s struggle to connect with voters reveals a deeper issue within the Republican Party. Vance’s inability to resonate with even a segment of the youth that supports Trump highlights a growing gap between GOP figures and the diverse voter base they need to win future elections.
As Robinson continues to court favor in North Carolina, and Vance grapples with his image problem, the GOP may find itself at a crossroads, needing to reconcile its loyalty to Trump with the growing unpopularity of some of his key allies. For now, Robinson’s success serves as a reminder that in politics, even scandal doesn’t always mean defeat—while Vance’s struggles suggest that being a Trump ally is no guarantee of popularity.
